National and regional economic growth

The National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) announced recently that the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) likely grew at 5.3 to 5.6 percent in 2006.

The lower figure will come out if the series of typhoons in the last three months of 2006 will have a major adverse impact on agricultural production.

Growth in agriculture is estimated to be 3.8 to 4.0 percent, industry at 5.2 to 5.4 percent and services at 6.0 to 6.3 percent.

The regional trend will likely follow that of the country with the difference possibly occurring in the agriculture sector. It was doing well up to the third quarter. However, the floods in Samar affected fourth quarter output, although the exact extent has yet to be determined. It is hoped that significant strides made in palay, coconut, and fish production will offset the losses due to the typhoons.

The services sector may have improved since the flow of people and goods to the region increased. Third quarter data was already encouraging. Fourth quarter data will be better because of the positive effect of the Christmas Season on consumer spending and, therefore, sales.

Industrial production is expected to increase based on positive indicators from the PASAR (copper) and Philphos (fertilizer) plants in Isabel, Leyte which, as of September 2006, have increased production by 5.4 and 16.0 percent, respectively. In addition, agribusiness ventures established in many areas such as piggery, poultry, mariculture and fish processing may have been substantial enough to result in significant increases.