Politics and the Economy: Who won the elections?

Time and again I have written about politics and economics. That there is a close relationship between the political situation and the economy of our country is undeniable (we can even call it an irrefutable law). The only thing debatable is what aspects are related, how, when is the relationship going to start working, and how intense it is.

The ongoing canvass of the results of the presidential election is an excellent example of the relationship.

Many are worried that the possibility of the canvass going beyond June 30, the deadline set in the Constitution, will ruin the economy due to severe losses in investment and a substantial reduction in employment. Will it?

I will state my view on this right at the start because it deserves emphasis.

My point here is if the proclamation is not held on June 30 or if it is held on time but there is an election protest it will not necessarily result in a severe dive in our economic situation. (Our economic fundamentals are sound) – inflation is low, the exchange rate is relatively stable, and production is up with Gross Domestic Product growth at a high 6.4 percent)

The Constitution has clearly outlined a succession to the functions of the Presidency. Therefore, even if the canvassing goes beyond June 30, there is a very clear line of succession – from the Senate President and then to the Speaker of the House of Representatives (Section 7 of Article VII of the 1989 (the present) Constitution.

Senate President Franklin Drilon does not even have to take his oath as Senator and Senate President before he can be the Acting President because he is an incumbent and his term as Senator ends on June 30, 2007.

The exact wording in the Constitution is:

Where no President and Vice-President shall have been chosen or shall have qualified, or where both shall have died or become permanently disabled, the President of the Senate or, in case of his inability, the Speaker of the House of Representatives, shall act as President until a President or a Vice-President shall have been chosen and qualified.

The Constitution also provides under Sec. 10 the manner for calling a special election to fill the vacancies in the Presidency and Vice-Presidency.

Democracy and freedom in this country will not come to an end if the proclamation is held beyond June 30. Our Constitution makes sure of that.

The process is just as important as the result. It must be credible so that the output (the proclamation of the President and Vice-President) will be acceptable.

To me, what will be harmful to the economy is the perception that the process adopted and implemented by Congress has led to the proclamation of a President and Vice-President who have not, in truth, won the election.

The perception, whether correct or not, can lead to mass actions that will create an unstable political situation.

The last thing we need is the resort to emergency measures such as the suspension of the privilege of the writ of habeas corpus and the declaration of Martial Law (Sec. 18 of the Constitution) to put to a stop what can be termed as rebellion.

Congress must do everything to avoid this worst case scenario. If it is unable to do so then the economy will go through a big bump that will take us years to recover from.

In this sense, winning the election is also winning the economy.