How confident is business?

In December 2003, I mentioned an apparent optimism among most businessmen that the economy will be better this year than last year. I cited one indicator – a sharp 75 percent increase in applications for new business names.

The 2004 elections must have perked up that confidence plus the usual influencing factors like low rate of inflation (less than 3 percent) and an improvement in the price of copra.

The continuous increase in total regional consumption of electric power reflected a resurgent 2003 that seemed to further push the optimistic outlook of most businessmen. There is, of course, that old saying “when you are down at the bottom there is no way but up.”

But that doesn’t seem to be the case here. We are certainly not at the bottom and there are factors showing a regional economy that would feature more agricultural production and more outputs in the services sector (such as in telecommunications and trade).

The political stability and new development projects of the next administration should result in amore economically prosperous Eastern Visayas. Gross National Product is expected to grow by about 5 percent and our economic growth in Eastern Visayas will also be at that rate.

Yes, we can see business exudes a lot of confidence, not only in astern Visayas, but also in Metro Manila (as shown by surveys) – but still the question is: Will such confidence be sustained throughout the year?

That will be a task of the next President and Cabinet will have to tackle as a first order of business.