When Perception is Better than Statistics

Last week I wrote about the fair performance of the region's economy in the third quarter of 2003 (July to September).

I would like to share with you more data from the latest statistical surveys and my interpretation of the data.

The value of construction activities were on the downtrend, with a reduction of 22.1 percent, on a year to year basis (3 rd quarter 2002 compared with 3 rd quarter 2003). Such a contraction will have a downward effect on the overall economic situation for 2003 and could offset the satisfactory performance of the agriculture sector.

The government has not been able to infuse substantial funding for roads, bridges and other infrastructure facilities due to lack of funds. It has had to resort to substantial borrowings to fill the funding gap brought about by a shortfall in revenue.

Curiously, the registration of business names is on the upswing as it grew by 77 percent. Why, we might ask, would people register business names and put up businesses when the economy has “only” a fair performance?

They may be doing so in anticipation of an economic recovery. An added reason could be the signs of resurgence and better times in the agricultural sector as shown by the increase in rice and coconut production.

It is also possible a lot of businesses are preparing for the expected inflow of funds due to next year's presidential elections.

Businessmen have a keen sense of what is going to happen. They see a lot that we cannot capture in the normal conduct of economic surveys.

I hope they are right. No, I'll change that – I know they are right.

In this situation, perception is better than statistics.