| The
Prospect of War in Iraq
and the Economy of Eastern
Visayas
We
all wonder how the war
in Iraq would affect us.
We are all worried. Most
of us could be anticipating
extreme economic difficulties
if this war broke out.
Our
worries are well placed.
Even now, the price of
gasoline has started to
move up and inflation
is starting to set in.
And the war has not even
started. But these worries
should not turn to panic.
The
income of families which
have relatives working
in the Middle East, especially
those in Iraq and in adjoining
countries, will also suffer
because if any of these
workers could prefer to
be in the Philippines
during this period.
The
government is trying to
cope with all sorts of
contingencies, from ferrying
endangered workers to
ensuring that the banking
system remains stable
and no bank runs occur.
In
short, a lot of preparations
have been made that we
practically are ready
for the worst possibility.
But are we?
What
may be really worrisome,
even if we have prepared
long and hard is that
the war will take a long
time and will spill over
to other countries.
Thus, going to the title
of this column, how will
the war affect us in Region
VIII? We will suffer in
virtually the same way
other regions will suffer.
If food becomes scarce,
we have to turn to our
local production to meet
our needs. At least, on
this point we have an
advantage over highly
urbanized regions which
are prone to food shortages
and run-away inflation.
We don’t expect
power shortages even if
oil prices increase or
oil supply declines because
we use geothermal energy.
Mechanized farming may
be affected due to dwindling
oil supply but we still
use a lot of traditional
farming which can carry
us through.
Other
services (telecommunications,
health, education, and
trading) will continue
to go on and will not
be significantly affected.
We
all are in some kind of
suspended animation. No
one can be sure exactly
what will happen. We can
only speculate. Even the
best laid out plans can
go wrong.
|
